US Pressure on Israel Needed for Peace in Syria

Following a suspected Israeli strike on the Abu al-Duhur airbase near Idlib, northwest Syria, the US Ambassador to Turkiye, Tom Barrack, proposed a "deconfliction mechanism" involving Turkiye, Syria, and Israel. Barrack characterized the attack, which he attributed to Israel along with the Syrian government, as an "unnecessary escalation."

However, despite this US initiative, experts believe the proposal might be insufficient to deter Israel, which has a history of strikes in Syria and continues to occupy Syrian territory.

"It is difficult to establish a deconfliction mechanism when only one party is initiating the conflict," Samy Akil, a senior adviser with The Syria Report, informed Al Jazeera.

Analysts and diplomatic sources indicate that Israel is the primary obstacle to progress in talks and reducing tensions with Syria, which is now under new leadership after the departure of former President Bashar al-Assad in December 2024. At the close of a protracted war, Syria is actively seeking to improve its relations with the West.

"Israeli-Syrian talks are stalled because the decision rests with Israel, and they currently do not see a priority in engaging with Damascus," Akil explained.

Turkiye and Israel Exchange Barbs

Under the previous al-Assad administration, Israel frequently targeted Iranian-aligned entities or interests within Syria, including the Iranian consulate in Damascus in April 2024, while generally avoiding direct attacks on Syrian state assets. This approach shifted after al-Assad's departure on December 8, 2024. Israel then began targeting Syria's military infrastructure nationwide, aiming to weaken the new government's armed forces, and also signaled potential troop deployments south of Damascus.

Since al-Assad's fall, Israel has also redirected its focus from Iranian influence in Syria to Turkish influence. Turkey had supported several anti-Assad rebel factions, many Syrian exiles had resided in Turkiye, and Ankara had worked to foster strong connections with Damascus and Syria's new President, Ahmed al-Sharaa.

Analysts told Al Jazeera that the recent attack was, in essence, a message from Tel Aviv to Ankara.

On Tuesday evening, the Israeli Prime Minister's Office released a statement that appeared to corroborate this suspicion, though it stopped short of claiming responsibility for the strike. The statement read, "Israel and Syria had an understanding regarding security matters, which Syria was close to violating by allowing Turkish forces to deploy at an airbase near Aleppo." It continued, "Israel repeatedly warned Syria that such a deployment would threaten Israel’s security. Syria chose to disregard these warnings."

Turkiye has strongly refuted Israel's account of the incident. The Republic of Turkiye's Directorate of Communications stated, "The baseless claims made by the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office are intended to legitimize Israel's illegal airstrikes that target Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity." They also accused Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of pursuing "expansionist and destabilizing policies in the region ahead of the elections in Israel."

Israeli Provocations in Syria

This brings us to US Ambassador Barrack and the concept of a deconfliction mechanism. Such a system would serve as a communication channel between Syria, Turkiye, and Israel, facilitated by the US, with the goal of preventing military escalations. This strategy mirrors efforts the US is undertaking in Lebanon between Beirut and Tel Aviv, aiming to halt Israeli attacks, disarm Hezbollah, and secure Israeli troop withdrawal from southern Lebanon. However, experts note that these initiatives have yet to yield significant results, largely due to Israel's military dominance and the Netanyahu government's inclination to undermine negotiations through unilateral military actions.

The Syrian government, for its part, has expressed a strong desire for a resolution with Israel, while emphasizing its unwillingness to agree to full normalization. This stance persists despite Israel's territorial acquisitions in the Golan Heights and Jabal al-Sheikh in December 2024, and the continued operation of checkpoints that harass and occasionally abduct Syrian citizens. Early Wednesday morning, Israeli troops reportedly conducted a raid in Quneitra, southwestern Syria, resulting in the abduction of two individuals.

Analysts contend that for any deconfliction mechanism to be effective, all parties must be genuinely committed to its objectives. "In essence, at what point does a deconfliction mechanism offer added value when any Syrian military build-up 300 kilometers [186 miles] from Israeli borders is considered a threat?" Akil questioned, adding that Syria's modest Soviet-era air force does not pose a "serious threat to Israel."

Netanyahu’s Re-election Escalation

Galip Dalay, a senior research fellow at Chatham House, told Al Jazeera that for any mechanism to succeed, the US would need to exert pressure on Netanyahu's government. Dalay suggested that Netanyahu, who is campaigning for re-election in October, might be seeking an escalation with either Lebanon or Syria, or in Palestine, especially after US President Donald Trump pressured Israel to moderate its involvement in the conflict with Iran.

Earlier in August, Netanyahu had explicitly rejected Trump's announced Gaza disarmament plan, leading to its modification, without facing significant public opposition from the US. "If the US applies sufficient pressure on Israel, they will listen," Dalay stated. "We witnessed this with Iran. The US made the decision, and although Netanyahu disagreed, they had to comply."

Dalay concluded, "The question is not only whether a deconfliction mechanism is needed in Syria, but rather the extent to which the US is prepared to make it credible and functional, and if the US is willing to apply pressure on Israel."